The grass has turned to straw. The darkened building has a foreclosure sign taped to the door. Past-due notices are scrunched into the jamb.

That describes houses in my Clovis neighborhood. It soon may well describe some California hospitals.

Members of the California State Rural Health Association gathered recently in Reedley, and one take-away from the panel discussion was what might be called a Doomsday scenario should the 10% proposed reductions in Medi-Cal be converted into law.

The recap document uses Sierra Kings District Hospital as a "what if?" example:

• "If" the cuts go ahead -- particularly the delays in Medi-Cal payments -- a cash-flow issue may imperil the $1 million Sierra Kings monthly payroll and other operating expenses.
• "If" those outlays can't be met, the hospital might consider closing for a period of time.
• "If" the hospital closes however briefly, it might be unable to retain its nurses and other skilled professionals, particularly if there is no guarantee that the problem of a broken state budget won't recur.
• "If" the hospital can't provide services, emergency patients would likely be transported to crowded Community Regional Medical Center in Fresno. The cost to the Medi-Cal program of that ambulance transport alone is estimated at $18.7 million. No word on what it might cost Community.
• "If" any of the frayed safety-net care system closes, illnesses will magnify and costs of care will rise for everyone.

"If" that synopsis isn't enough, just Google what's happening to ambulance companies around the country as gas and diesel prices go stratospheric. In some locales, well, the whirring lights and sirens of smaller ambulance companies are being silenced.

A Hollywood writer couldn't infuse more "what if" pathos into California's draft health-care disaster script.